Question Description
Just 2 Questions… 1. Forecastingtechniques rely on the adage that history repeats itself. Many times,though, it has been noted that there is no guarantee that historicalpatterns will repeat and, even if they do, it can be difficult orimpossible to predict when a pattern will repeat itself. Provide twotime series examples that seemed stable and predictable until there was asignificant change to the pattern. Was there a way to predict thepattern change? Explain.
2.
Technically,once a time series model is built, any future value can be forecasted.For example, assume you built a model that forecasts monthly sales of aproduct given the last 3 months of sales. Using the model, youforecasted monthly sales for the next 6 months, and the model providedvery accurate predicted sales.
Your manager wants to use your model to predict sales for the next 5years. What are some problems that could occur with extending theforecast horizon out that far? How would this affect your confidence inthe forecasted values for a year? Five years? Explain.
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